Introduction
The future of the United Kingdom has been increasingly debated following Boris Johnson’s election as the Prime Minister. Questions around his potential to influence Scottish independence have surfaced, particularly in light of his past governance and policy stances.
The Current Political Landscape
Following the May 2021 elections, the Socialist Nationalist Party (SNP) is expected to continue governing Scotland. This is in contrast to Wales, where Plaid Cymru might enter a coalition with Labour, while Labour itself could lose seats. The Conservative government, driven by Boris Johnson, faces increasing challenges in Northern Ireland due to social unrest following its Brexit deal.
Threat to Devolved Institutions
Given the upcoming UK general election, there is a distinct possibility that Boris Johnson’s ruling Conservatives could scrap Scottish and Welsh devolved institutions if they retain power. Johnson may appeal to his English base by painting these institutions as troublesome bureaucratic entities. The historical precedent where the Conservatives scrapped many local and regional councils in the 1980s suggests a strong potential for repeats in the future.
Impact on Scottish Independence
Reducing or eliminating devolved institutions could make Scottish independence less likely. The current First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, is expected to no longer hold office if devolution is scrapped. This move would remove a significant push towards Scottish independence.
Legal and Political Controversies
The reluctance of the British Prime Minister to grant a Section 30 order to Scotland remains a contentious issue. A Section 30 order is necessary for the Scottish Parliament to pass any primary legislation that overrides the laws of Westminster. Refusing it is seen by many as an anti-democratic act.
Understanding the Union
The nature of the Union is central to understanding its impact. Even if Scotland’s parliament and MPs consistently support independence, the British Prime Minister retains the power to refuse a Section 30 order without any legal repercussions. This is because the Union was established to give England control over Scotland, ensuring no obligation to respect Scottish democratic will.
Political Games and Interventions
Nicola Sturgeon’s commitment to the Section 30 process and her promise for a new independence referendum may backfire. Boris Johnson has the power to delay responding to the Section 30 order, thereby delaying any referendum. This move would place the political burden on Sturgeon and the SNP, likely affecting their standing in the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections.
Conclusion
The upcoming UK general election further complicates the future of the Union. Whether Boris Johnson scraps devolved institutions or delays a Section 30 order, the impact on Scottish independence remains a critical issue. The political maneuvering around these issues highlights the ongoing constitutional tension within the United Kingdom.