Forecasting This Year's Monsoon: An Above-Normal Season in India

The Weather Company, a subsidiary of IBM, has announced that India should prepare for an above-normal monsoon season in 2020. Their uncalibrated climate model forecasts suggest a record wet monsoon, with rain expected at 105% of normal levels. This expectation marks a significant shift from the typical seasonal patterns.

Expected Anomalous Rainfall

The West Coast of India is anticipated to experience the most anomalous rainfall this year, particularly the southwestern regions. According to Todd Crawford, Chief Meteorologist at the Weather Company, Kerala and Coastal Karnataka should brace themselves for an active monsoon season.

As the monsoon progresses, the company's seasonal forecast indicates a transition from weak El Nino conditions towards La Nina conditions. This shift is expected to become increasingly conducive to heavier rainfall later in the season, fueled by a large-scale atmospheric pattern.

North-Eastern Drier Conditions

While the forecast suggests a wet monsoon season in most regions, the North-Eastern parts of India are expected to experience drier conditions. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) signal is anticipated to be less positive this year, which could limit the amount of rainfall. The forecast also factors in a multi-decadal dry signal, pushing expectations slightly towards drier conditions.

As mentioned in the forecast, the North-West regions may see significantly lower rainfall due to this multi-decadal dry signal, which skews expectations towards drier conditions in some areas. Similarly, East India regions also face the possibility of lower-than-normal rainfall.

La Nina Trend

The forecast anticipates a trend towards more La Nina conditions as the monsoon season progresses. This will favor heavier rainfall later in the season across all regions. However, unlike last year, the company does not expect a very strong IOD, making it difficult to achieve the same 110% level of rainfall experienced in 2019.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while India should expect a more active monsoon season, with above-normal rainfall in many regions, there is a need for careful preparation to manage potential dry spells in certain areas. The Weather Company advises that India's national forecaster, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), will provide detailed long-range forecasts later in the month, which will be crucial for adaptation and planning.

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