Prigozhin's Dilemma after Agreeing to Cease His March on Moscow
The recent agreement by the Wagner Group to stop its march on Moscow has caused significant shifts in the political landscape. Igor Prigozhin, the controversial leader of the private military company, now finds himself in a precarious position. The reshaping of the Wagner Group and the potential fallout for Prigozhin himself are topics of keen interest and concern.
Exile and Recriminations: The Future of Prigozhin
It is already clear that Prigozhin is facing exile and may not survive much longer. The Wagner group is no longer an independent force but is now being reabsorbed into the Russian military. The choice for members of the Wagner group was either to return to Ukraine or retire, with the understanding that those who chose these options would face criminal charges, potentially including treason or worse.
The Kremlin and Its Deals: Broken Promises
There is a long record of the Kremlin reneging on its deals, especially when it comes to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Many believe that had Prigozhin been given a genuine peaceful solution, he might have chosen differently. Instead, the choice now is between exile and facing the ominous prospect of a legal battle.
A Complex Situation: Martyrdom or Criticism?
The situation Prigozhin now faces is delicate. If he were to be eliminated, he could become a martyr, fueling further resistance. However, if he remains alive, he could continue to be a vocal critic, complicating matters further. Reports suggest that the Wagner group will be split, with those involved in the march going to Belarus and Africa, while others will become contract soldiers for the Russian official army.
Speculations and Future Plans
The exact terms of the negotiations remain unclear, but it appears that the agreement was made only 125 miles outside Moscow. Since then, there has been no word from Wagner or Prigozhin. Placing the Wagner group within the Russian military structure is risky, as it could lead to more internal conflicts. Furthermore, the sheer size of the Wagner group—50,000 strong—makes it difficult to simply disband them, despite their dependence on other operations.
Advice for Prigozhin
Prigozhin must be extremely cautious moving forward. His advice is to be wary of his food and drink, avoid touching ordinary objects, and be vigilant about checking vehicles and avoiding high-rise buildings and elevators. Anything signed or agreed to by Putin or Lukashenko is considered meaningless, as history shows that such promises are often broken.
Conclusion: The future of Prigozhin and the Wagner group hangs in the balance. While a split may have been negotiated, each faction must navigate the complex political landscape carefully. The situation remains fraught with uncertainty and potential for further instability.