The Current Status of Russian Warships in the Black Sea
As of the morning of November 22, 28 Russian ships were on duty, six of which carried Kalibr cruise missiles, according to the Ukrainian Navy report. Yesterday's reports indicated that there were five Russian missile carriers with Kalibr in the Black Sea.
These numbers reflect the current operational capabilities of the Russian Navy, particularly in the Black Sea region. Despite boasting a large number of submarines, aircraft carriers, and various other ships, the effectiveness and readiness of Russian naval forces are not uniformly high. This discrepancy can be attributed to a variety of factors, including the condition of the fleet and current operational requirements.
The Modern Russian Navy: A Rough Breakdown
The modern Russian Navy is a complex and diverse force, but it also faces significant challenges in terms of readiness and modernization. Here is a rough breakdown of the fleet:
Northern Fleet
The Northern Fleet, based at Murmansk, has one aircraft carrier that can be towed to wherever needed. It also includes two Kirov class battlecruisers, one of which is undergoing long-term refit, and one Slava class cruiser, which is sister to the late Moskva. Additionally, there are five destroyers and two frigates, some of which are laid up, all dating back to the 1970s and 1980s. Approximately 28 submarines, about half of which are reasonably modern and combat ready.
Baltic Fleet
The Baltic Fleet includes one destroyer that is not combat ready, one older submarine, and a number of smaller coastal defense or patrol vessels.
Pacific Fleet
The Pacific Fleet comprises one Slava class cruiser, which is a sister ship to the Moskva, five destroyers, and approximately 23 submarines, about half of which are reasonably modern and operational.
Black Sea Fleet
The Black Sea Fleet consists of five frigates, one or two of which may have been damaged by the Ukrainians, and five or so older submarines.
Each of these fleets includes a range of auxiliary vessels, including supply landing craft, coastal patrol vessels, and other support ships.
The Black Sea: A Pond or a Backwater?
When considering the Black Sea, it is important to note that at least some of these naval assets are more suitable for a larger, more complex theater of operations, such as potential conflicts with Western Cold War powers during a Russia-led WWIII scenario. In the context of the current conflict, the Black Sea can be seen as less of a theater of major naval operations and more of a region for coastal defense and limited operations.
Specific assets in the Black Sea include several submarines, the Moskva, the Vasily Bekh, the Saratov, and some patrol boats. These ships are likely to be dedicated to coastal defense, anti-submarine warfare, and other localized operations.
Latest Information on Russian Naval Capabilities
According to the latest information:
Russia has approximately four combat-ready frigates, including one Krivak class and three Admiral Grigorovich class. As of May 6, it appears that the number of combat-ready Admiral Grigorovich class frigates has decreased by one.
They have around six larger landing craft, each capable of transporting 10-15 tanks, a score of other vehicles, and 400 troops. However, one or two of these landing craft have been damaged by the Ukrainians, and one was lost to them. Initially, they had about seven landing craft.
They possess 50 smaller vessels, including small patrol boats, coastal defense anti-submarine warfare vessels, and supply vessels, with very low utility against Ukraine. One patrol boat has been damaged. Russia has since lost two more patrol boats.
There are likely six submarines or so, with very low usefulness in operations against Ukraine.
These details highlight the operational realities and current readiness of Russia's naval assets in the Black Sea region, providing a more nuanced understanding of their capabilities and limitations.