The Subtle Diplomatic Reasons Behind the Scrapping of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir

Recently, the Indian government passed a bill bifurcating Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories: Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir. This move has also diluted or removed the special status of Article 370, which had given the region a unique status. While the nation debates the implications of these changes, the real reasons behind this move lie in the complex historical and diplomatic context of the region.

Historical Context and Diplomatic Tensions

FOR more than 70 years, Jammu and Kashmir has been at the center of the longstanding dispute between India and Pakistan. Since 1948, they have fought four wars, each time ending with India asserting its dominance. The Line of Control (LoC) was established in 1972 as a ceasefire agreement. In 1947, the Home Minister of India declared Kashmir as an integral part of India, and both the Supreme Court and Election Commission extended their jurisdiction over the state. Pakistan responded by launching Operation Gibraltar in 1965, leading to another war.

Internal and External Pressures

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In 2019, Home Minister of India diluted Article 370, bifurcated Jammu and Kashmir, and made both regions Union Territories. Pakistan immediately declared it a violation of the 17 UN principles and took diplomatic actions. The region's special status was a significant factor in Pakistan's ability to instigate separatist activities in Kashmir. These activities peaked during the 1989 insurgency, which persists to some extent.

Parallel Story: The U.S. and Pakistan's Role

During the Cold War, when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, the United States, through Pakistan's ISI, supported Mujahideen groups financially and militarily. This led to the disintegration of the Soviet Union. After 1989, Pakistan's ISI supported these groups, which used the Afghanistan War to create instability in Kashmir. This connection raises questions about the extent of Pakistan's role in maintaining balance in the region.

Strategic Importance of Kashmir

Strategically, Kashmir is crucial to both India and Pakistan. For Pakistan, the region serves as a potential refuge in case of a future war with India. Moreover, Afghanistan's stability and the relationship it maintains with India and Pakistan are critical for both nations. India's largest investment in Afghanistan at $5 billion demonstrates the country's strategic importance.

Conclusion

Mark Twain's famous quote serves as a perfect encapsulation: "History may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes." The actions taken by the Indian government in Kashmir reflect a long-term strategy to secure its borders and thwart external influences. By centralizing control, India aims to mitigate the risk of separatist activities and protect its national security interests. These actions are part of a larger geopolitical chessboard where every move has profound implications.

Historical context and diplomatic ties play a significant role in shaping current events. Understanding these factors helps to interpret the recent changes in Jammu and Kashmir and the broader India-Pakistan dynamic.