The Unrealized Scenario: If Wagner Had Successfully Seized Moscow
Imagine a different outcome in the ongoing conflicts in Russia, where the Wagner Group managed to capture Moscow. In reality, such an event is highly improbable due to the strategic military measures taken by President Putin. However, for the sake of this hypothetical discussion, let’s explore what could have transpired if the Wagner Group had succeeded.
The Impassable Barriers: Putin's Defense
The first and most significant hurdle for the Wagner Group would be the formidable Russian military forces deployed around Moscow. It’s highly likely that Putin had already strategized to ensure that no such perilous mission could succeed. The military presence would act as an insurmountable barrier, even for a mercenary force of the Wagner Group’s size, which numbers around 20,000 mercenaries.
Wagner Group: A Tyrannical Coalition
The Wagner Group, known for its ruthless tactics and controversial ties, is not a democratic group. It is a collection of individuals and units who have no qualms about using violence and force in pursuit of their goals. Such a regime would likely be no different from the current rule under Putin, if not more tyrannical. This malignancy would have immediately alienated the Russian populace, deepening the divide between the authorities and the citizens.
Administrative Dilemmas: Control of Moscow
Even if the Wagner Group managed to capture Moscow, they would face significant administrative challenges. Moscow is home to approximately 15 million people, making it one of the largest cities in the world. It is a metropolis that operates on a sea of logistics, where even the subway system transports millions each day. The sheer scale of the city, with its transportation networks, communication infrastructure, and governance, would present an overwhelming obstacle.
Alternative Actions: Putin’s Exit Plan
One of the most plausible scenarios in this hypothetical is that even if the Wagner Group had succeeded in capturing some areas around Moscow, President Putin would have had the foresight to flee. Putin could have retreated to Vladivostok, which is strategically located in the Far East of Russia, and maintained control over the vast territory beyond Moscow. This strategic retreat would have allowed him to continue exercising control over the rest of the country, weakening the Wagner Group’s control in Moscow.
Support and Resistance: Inside the Kremlin
Another critical factor is the loyalty and support of key institutions within the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense. There is no guarantee that these institutions would side with the Wagner Group. Historical precedents, such as the 1991 coup attempt, show that insurrections within the power structures can be swiftly thwarted. The August 19, 1991 coup attempt, which aimed to topple the government, failed within four days. President Mikhail Gorbachev was able to return to Moscow, reclaiming control. The coup did not last long, but it did mark the beginning of the end of the Soviet Union just four months later. This troubling episode indicates that even if the Wagner Group had seized power in Moscow, the Kremlin and its loyalists would likely resist.
Conclusion: The Realistic Limitations
In conclusion, while it’s fascinating to speculate on such a hypothetical scenario, the realistic limitations of the Wagner Group, the formidable Russian military, and political realities within Moscow make such a scenario highly improbable. Putin’s strategic foresight, combined with the loyalty of key institutions and the sheer scale of Moscow itself, pose significant challenges to any external force seeking to seize power. Additionally, the ethical and humanitarian implications of such a regime would make it an unappealing prospect for the global community and for the Russian people themselves.