Will Scotland Seek Independence in 2021 After Brexit?

The question of Scottish independence has long been a topic of discussion and debate in the United Kingdom. In the context of Brexit, the complexity and urgency of this issue have grown significantly. The Scottish National Party (SNP) has been particularly vocal in advocating for Scotland's right to determine its own path. This article explores the possibility of Scotland seeking independence in 2021 and the factors driving this potential move.

Cabinet Office and Taxpayer-Funded Polling

The UK government's stance on Scottish independence has often been contentious and politically motivated. In 2019, there were allegations that the Cabinet Office withheld taxpayer-funded polling data on Scottish independence. According to a report, a Freedom of Information (FOI) request from Sheppard to the Cabinet Office revealed that the information was being withheld because it was exempt under section 351a of the Freedom of Information Act 2000. The government argued that the data was related to the formulation or development of government policy.

This controversy highlights the ongoing tension between the Scottish people's right to self-determination and the UK government's desire to maintain the status quo.

Electoral Timing and Political Mandate

The timing of any future independence vote is crucial. The SNP is currently preparing for the Scottish Parliamentary Elections (SpE) in 2021. The party believes that an SNP/Scottish Green Party majority in the Scottish Parliament would provide a strong mandate for the second independence referendum (Indyref2) in 2022. The leadership of the SNP faces significant pressure to make the timing of Indyref2 both optimal and politically viable.

In 2014, it was estimated that generational change alone could shift the balance in favor of independence by 2022. However, the outcome of the Brexit referendum has complicated this projection. While many believed that the departure from the EU would increase support for independence, the immediate and long-term impact of Brexit on the Scottish economy and society remains uncertain. The SNP must weigh the potential benefits and risks of pushing for independence before Brexit's full effects are clear.

SNP Leadership Dilemma

The SNP leadership is caught in a difficult position. They must choose between going too soon, risking public fatigue and opposition from key stakeholders, or waiting too long, which could potentially reduce support for independence. Professor Sir John Curtice, a respected expert on Scottish politics, was previously involved in advising the SNP on the timing of any potential independence referendum.

A key factor influencing the timing is the ongoing legal proceedings involving Joanna Cherry. Cherrys' involvement in promising litigation could affect the political landscape and influence the timing of the referendum. If successful, this litigation could delay the referendum process, providing more time for the Scottish government to build a stronger case for independence.

Conversely, if the legal challenges are unsuccessful, the SNP leadership may accelerate the process, seeing an opportunity to capitalize on public sentiment.

Conclusion

The question of whether Scotland will seek independence in 2021 remains uncertain. The SNP's motivations, the impact of Brexit, and the legal and political landscape all play critical roles in determining the timing of any potential referendum. As the situation evolves, it is essential to closely monitor these factors to understand the future trajectory of Scottish politics.