Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Reckless March to Moscow

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the enigmatic figure behind the Wagner Group, had long been a face of the controversial Russian private military corporation. As his “army” faced advancing forces on the battlefield, the question arises: did Prigozhin lose his nerve as his advance approached Moscow? Let’s delve into the potential reasons and implications behind his actions.

Prigozhin's Decision to March on Moscow

With his 25,000 battle-hardened, well-equipped, and motivated troops, it seems puzzling that Prigozhin did not march straight into Moscow. The road to the capital was wide open, presenting a plethora of options, ranging from toppling President Putin to leveraging him as a figurehead while Prigozhin remains the de facto leader. Is it possible that he lacked the political acumen to handle such a complex situation?

Prepare for Battle

The preparations leading up to this move were extensive and well-conceived. Multiple sources, including late leaks, suggest that this was a meticulously planned operation. It is evident that we are only seeing a two-dimensional slice of a three-dimensional picture and should avoid drawing premature conclusions.

Prigozhin had been vocal about the situation in Belgorod, a Russian city northeast of Ukraine where the military was facing significant challenges from partisan forces. Local residents pleaded for Wagner to restore order, and the Ministry of Defense sent reinforcements to the area. The path to Moscow was relatively clear after Belgorod.

Infiltration and Success

Instead of advancing on Moscow, Prigozhin and his forces succeeded in capturing the Southern Military District Command Center in Rostov, along with Voronezh-45, a military base equipped with nuclear weapons. This success may partly be attributed to the support from GRU Spetsnaz, or Special Operations Forces, which provided crucial assistance.

Prigozhin's aims in Rostov remain uncertain. Was this merely a photo-opportunity, or did he have a more profound strategic intent? Speculation abounds that Supreme Commander General Valery Gerasimov, who holds the nuclear codes, was taken hostage. Gerasimov was last seen in Rostov, and Prigozhin made a public appearance alongside several high-ranking defense officials, including Deputy Defense Minister Yevkurov and Generals Surovikin and Alexeev.

Official Responses and Rumors

The Kremlin released a video addressing rumors, but it was vague and evasive. The video's subjects were discussed indistinctly, with claims that Ukraine had shot down a Soviet S-200 missile. This was accompanied by the unusual blurring of many people and documents. Some even speculated that Wagner tried to collect mini nukes that could fit inside a backpack.

Official Ukrainian sources confirmed that they attempted to collect nukes from a storage facility, but failed to pass certain security doors. These events paint a picture of a large-scale distraction, with the real action possibly occurring in Rostov while Moscow was in turmoil.

Prigozhin and Putin’s relationship remains contentious. While the official Kremlin stance denied any recent meeting, the two factions appear to be uncertain and on edge, leading to significant volatility in Russian politics.

As Russia navigates through these turbulent times, the outcome of Prigozhin's actions in Rostov and his intentions regarding Moscow will have far-reaching implications. The next moves will be crucial in determining the future of Russia's political landscape.

Keywords: Prigozhin, Moscow, Russian Troops